Predicting Apple EPS Value for 2018 Q2
Executive Summary: Utilizing Apple, Inc. (“Apple”) earnings per share (“EPS”) from Q1 2005 through Q1 2018, our best prediction of the second fiscal quarter of 2018 (“Q2 2018”) earnings is $2.75 . Utilizing eight models from Business Forecasting (ITOM6222), we determined the forecasting model that best predicts Apple’s earnings per share is the ARIMA model, which gave us a Q2 2018 prediction of $2.70, which we then adjusted to $2.75 to reflect various industry and market trends not reflected in the forecasting model. Forecasting Methods: T he forecasting analysts utilized eight forecasting models outlined in Table 1. Forecasting Methods and Outcomes . The Mean Square Error (“MSE”) associated with each forecast method was utilized to measure the accuracy and fit of the model. Table 1. Forecasting Methods and Outcomes Method Q2 2018 Forecasted EPS MSE Naïve $3.89 5.52362 Moving Average (K=4) $2.43 6.199...